What is the EB-1A approval rate in 2026?

The EB-1A approval rate fell sharply in 2026. USCIS quarterly data (released September 8, 2026) shows 47.5% approved in Q1 FY2026, 41.8% in Q2, and 32.2% in Q3 (1,348 approved vs 2,832 denied). FY2025 closed at about 67%, down from the 73-79% range of FY2020-FY2024. Two of three recently decided petitions are denied, which makes evidence quality the deciding factor.

What percentage of EB-1A petitions get a Request for Evidence?

Across FY2020-FY2024, about 21-28% of EB-1A petitions received a Request for Evidence (RFE). USCIS has not yet published RFE shares for FY2025-FY2026, but practitioner reports describe RFEs as more frequent and more demanding in the current scrutiny environment. An RFE is not a denial; a substantive, well-documented response can still convert to approval.

Is the EB-1A approval rate getting worse?

Yes, sharply. Approvals have fallen for six consecutive quarters, from the mid-70s to 32.2% in Q3 FY2026. This is a scrutiny shift, not a lottery: adjudicators are reading evidence harder, especially at the final-merits step. The petitions that still win are the thoroughly documented ones: independent letters, archived press, selectivity proof, and a brief that argues sustained acclaim explicitly. Under-documented cases that would have passed in 2023 now fail.

Do self-filers have a lower EB-1A approval rate than attorney-filed cases?

USCIS does not publish a self-versus-attorney approval rate split. AILA practitioner data and anecdotal evidence suggest self-filers approve at slightly lower rates than attorney-filed cases, perhaps 5-10 percentage points lower, primarily because self-filers more often miscalibrate the "sustained acclaim" standard or under-cite exhibits.

Which criteria have the highest RFE rate?

Criterion 5 (Original Contributions of Major Significance) and Criterion 8 (Critical or Essential Role) draw RFEs at the highest rates because they require the most subjective adjudicator judgment. Criterion 1 (Awards) and Criterion 9 (High Salary) have the lowest RFE rates because they are most amenable to documentary proof.

EB-1A Guide · Last reviewed 2026-10-02

EB-1A approval rate in 2026

The era changed. For years USCIS approved roughly three out of four EB-1A petitions (73-79% across FY2020-FY2024). Then FY2025 closed at about 67%, and FY2026 has fallen quarter after quarter: 47.5%, then 41.8%, then 32.2% in Q3 (1,348 approved against 2,832 denied, per USCIS data released September 8, 2026). Two of three recently decided petitions now fail. The ones that still win are the thoroughly documented ones.

The numbers

The era changed: approvals fell to 67 percent in FY2025, then 47.5, 41.8 and 32.2 percent across the FY2026 quarters. Scrutiny is up; documentation quality now decides cases. RFE shares for FY2025-26 are not yet published.

Data above reflects USCIS-reported outcomes on Form I-140 petitions filed under the EB-1A extraordinary ability category. USCIS counts outcomes in the period a petition is decided, not the period it was filed. The FY2026 bar covers quarters 1-3 (October 2025 through June 2026); RFE shares for FY2025-FY2026 have not been published yet. Six straight quarters of decline is the steepest scrutiny shift in the category's recorded history.

What the trend tells you

A six-quarter slide from the mid-70s to 32% is not noise; it is a policy posture. Adjudicators are applying the final-merits step (the “sustained acclaim, top of the field” question from Kazarian) far more aggressively, and thin files are the first casualties: letters from colleagues instead of independent experts, unarchived links, memberships without selectivity proof, one-year bursts instead of a sustained record.

For a petitioner deciding whether to file in 2026, the headline is: the average no longer predicts your outcome; your documentation does. The spread between a thoroughly documented case and an under-documented one is now worth more than forty percentage points of average. Strong cases with deep evidence still approve; cases that would have coasted through in 2023 now draw RFEs and denials. The calendar stopped being neutral: it punishes thin files.

RFE rates by criterion

USCIS-published data does not break RFE rates down by criterion, but AILA practitioner reports and AAO appeal patterns provide a consistent rank order:

Criterion	Typical RFE risk	Why
C5, Original contributions	Highest	Most subjective; adjudicator must judge “major significance”
C8, Critical / essential role	High	Requires demonstrating org distinction AND personal indispensability
C4, Judging others	Medium	Common; adjudicators look for senior-tier vs entry-tier judging
C2, Selective memberships	Medium	Must prove the membership requires “outstanding achievement”
C3, Published material about you	Medium	Articles must be ABOUT you, not BY you; outlet quality matters
C6, Scholarly authorship	Low-Medium	Citation impact often weak alone; needs supporting context
C7, Exhibitions	Low (niche)	Mostly artists; well-defined when claimed
C10, Performing arts success	Low (niche)	Box office / chart data is concrete
C1, Awards	Lowest	Certificate + selectivity proof is documentary; less judgment required
C9, High salary	Lowest	Salary statements + official comparators are concrete

The practical lesson: anchor your case in low-RFE criteria (C1, C9, C6) and use the high-RFE criteria (C5, C8) as supporting argument, not as your primary claim. See the full 10 EB-1A criteria explained for what each criterion demands.

What an RFE means for your timeline

An RFE is a single letter from USCIS saying “we need more proof on criterion X.” You have 87 calendar days to respond. Most RFE responses are 10-25 pages of additional evidence plus a fresh argument anchored in regulatory language.

Timeline impact: 4-9 additional months on top of base I-140 processing.
RFE-to-approval rate: roughly 60-70% of EB-1A RFE responses convert to approval. The other 30-40% receive a denial that can sometimes be appealed to the AAO.
RFE response quality matters more than RFE response volume. A 25-page response with three new exhibits often beats an 80-page response with 30 weak exhibits.
Retain an attorney for the RFE response if you self-filed the original petition. RFE responses are where attorney-level argument changes outcomes most dramatically.

Approval rate by service center

USCIS routes EB-1A petitions to either the Texas Service Center or the Nebraska Service Center based on the petitioner's state of residence. USCIS does not publish approval rates by service center, but practitioner data consistently shows the Nebraska center adjudicating slightly faster, with comparable approval rates within 1-2 percentage points of each other. You do not get to pick the center.

What moves YOUR approval probability

The published rate is the average across all filers, all fields, all evidence strengths, and in 2026 that average is dominated by under-documented filings. Your case sits somewhere on a distribution. Things that move you toward the winning end:

Four or five criteria satisfied, not the bare minimum of three. AAO precedent shows higher approval rates when petitioners exceed the floor.
Independent recommender letters. Letters from people who do NOT work with you weigh more than letters from former bosses.
Outlet quality on Criterion 3. A Bloomberg or Nature article weighs dramatically more than a niche blog post.
Sustained timeline. Evidence spread across 5+ years beats a single-year burst.
Final-merits framing. A brief that explicitly addresses Kazarian step two (sustained acclaim) outperforms one that stops at step one (criteria checklist).

Things that move you toward the low end:

Press releases mislabeled as published material. Auto-RFE.
Self-authored articles counted under Criterion 3. Auto-RFE; goes under Criterion 6 instead.
Missing Wayback Machine archives. USCIS treats stale URLs as missing evidence.
Generic recommender letters. If multiple letters use identical phrasing, USCIS notices.
Bare-minimum exhibits. If you cite five evidence pieces per criterion, USCIS asks why so little.

Score your case against the approval-rate distribution

In a year when two of three petitions fail, filing blind is the expensive option. Lana reads your CV and tells you, criterion by criterion, where your evidence sits: STRONG, BORDERLINE, WEAK, NOT_READY, and then digs up the press, citations and awards that turn a thin file into a documented one. Knowing where you stand before you file is the single biggest lever on your outcome.

See your strength check Read the 10 criteria

Sources

USCIS data: Reports and Studies, Immigration and Citizenship Data , quarterly series
USCIS Policy Manual: Volume 6, Part F, Chapter 2
Controlling precedent: Kazarian v. USCIS, 596 F.3d 1115 (9th Cir. 2010)
Regulation: 8 C.F.R. § 204.5(h)(3)